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Loss Prevention Analytics: How to identify shrinkage, investigate incidents and reduce repeat losses

Businesses invest considerable resources in preventing theft, protecting assets and maintaining secure premises. CCTV systems, access controls, electronic article surveillance and incident reporting platforms can all contribute to these efforts. But collecting information about security incidents is only the beginning.

A retailer may record repeated stock losses without identifying why they occur. A warehouse could experience discrepancies in particular product categories without understanding whether they result from theft, damage or inaccurate handling procedures.

Meanwhile, a security team might investigate individual incidents successfully without recognising patterns that could help prevent similar losses elsewhere.

For security managers, the opportunity is to use information more effectively.

The British Retail Consortium’s 2026 Crime Report highlights the continuing importance of tackling theft, repeat offending and threats to retail employees, while emphasising better reporting and collaboration.

At a Glance: Improving Loss Prevention Through Data

Area to improveWhy it mattersWhat to focus on
Shrinkage analysisIdentifies where inventory losses occurStock variances, product categories and locations
Incident reportingCreates a consistent record of security eventsStandardised categories, timestamps and follow-up
Video evidenceHelps verify events and investigate lossesSearchable footage, image quality and retention
Access recordsProvides context around restricted areasAuthorisations, access events and anomalies
Pattern detectionHelps identify recurring vulnerabilitiesLocations, times, activities and repeat incidents
Prevention and reviewTurns information into fewer future lossesCorrective actions, ownership and measurable outcomes

Start by Understanding the Different Causes of Loss

Obviously, not every missing item is evidence of theft. Inventory discrepancies can also result from damaged goods, administrative errors, incorrect stock movements, inaccurate deliveries or weaknesses in operational procedures.

Security teams should therefore avoid treating every loss as a criminal incident.

A useful starting point is to distinguish between known losses, unexplained discrepancies and confirmed security events.

This can help organisations avoid unnecessary investigations while identifying where further attention is required.

Police.uk recommends regular stock checks and the investigation of anomalies as part of business crime prevention.

However, stock data should be interpreted alongside relevant operational information.

The objective is to understand why losses are occurring rather than simply calculate their financial value.

Identify Patterns in Shrinkage Data

Shrinkage describes the difference between expected inventory and the stock actually available, expressed as a quantity or value.

For businesses handling large numbers of products, even relatively small discrepancies can accumulate.

Analysing shrinkage by product, location, department or time period can help identify recurring issues.

For example, repeated losses involving the same product category might justify a review of display arrangements, storage procedures or inventory controls.

A warehouse experiencing frequent discrepancies around goods dispatch may need to examine picking, scanning and loading processes.

The information should guide further investigation rather than automatically establish the cause.

The value of shrinkage data is not simply knowing what has disappeared. It is understanding where the organisation is losing control.

Create Consistent Incident Records

Security information is less useful when incidents are recorded differently across departments or locations.

One site may record attempted theft separately from completed theft, while another combines them into a single category.

Descriptions can also vary according to the employee completing the report.

Organisations should therefore establish consistent incident definitions and recording procedures.

Useful information may include the date, time, location, type of incident, assets involved, reported impact and action taken.

Where several sites are involved, standardisation makes it easier to compare trends.

However, incident records should distinguish confirmed facts from allegations or unverified observations.

A consistent reporting framework helps organisations identify patterns without treating every suspicion as established wrongdoing.

Connect Incident Reports with CCTV Evidence

CCTV can help security teams understand what happened during a particular event.

But its investigative value depends on whether relevant footage can be located quickly and interpreted alongside other information.

For example, an incident report might identify a stock discrepancy discovered during a shift.

Relevant camera footage could help establish whether unusual activity occurred around the affected area.

However, footage should not be treated as conclusive without considering its limitations.

Camera coverage, lighting, image quality and timing can all affect what the recording shows.

The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) advises organisations to maintain accurate timestamps, restrict access to footage and ensure information can be retrieved in a usable format.

Buyers should therefore consider how efficiently their systems support evidence retrieval and investigation.

The aim is to establish a reliable account of events rather than simply collect more recordings.

Use Video Analytics to Prioritise Attention

Video analytics can help security teams identify selected events or behaviours that merit review.

Depending on the system, this might include movement in restricted areas, activity outside normal operating hours or repeated events in particular locations.

These capabilities can help organisations manage large volumes of video information.

However, automated detection should not be confused with confirmation of theft.

An unexpected movement may have an innocent explanation, while an actual loss may occur without triggering a predefined alert.

Security managers should establish how analytics are configured, validated and monitored.

They should also consider whether the system generates too many false positives.

The most useful analytics reduce the time required to identify relevant events without creating an unnecessary investigative workload.

Bring Access Control Information into Investigations

Access control systems can provide useful context when losses occur in restricted areas.

For example, records may show when particular doors were opened or which credentials were used to access a stockroom.

However, these records have limitations.

A credential being used does not necessarily establish who physically entered an area or what occurred afterwards.

Access information should therefore be considered alongside CCTV, operational records and other available evidence.

Security teams should also review whether access permissions remain appropriate.

Employees changing roles, contractors completing assignments and temporary access arrangements can create unnecessary exposure if permissions are not updated.

Identifying these weaknesses can reduce future risk without requiring additional surveillance technology.

Look for Repeat Incidents and Vulnerable Locations

A series of apparently unrelated incidents may reveal a common vulnerability.

Losses might occur repeatedly near poorly supervised exits, during shift changes or around particular delivery arrangements.

Police.uk recommends crime mapping: recording incident locations, dates and times, then examining what can be changed to improve security.

This provides a practical model for businesses.

Security teams can combine incident data with site layouts, operational schedules and relevant surveillance information.

The findings might support changes to lighting, stock positioning, access controls or staffing arrangements.

The important step is moving from identifying a hotspot to understanding why that area is vulnerable.

A location with more recorded incidents may reflect better detection, higher activity or a genuine security weakness.

Context is essential.

Investigate Operational Weaknesses, Not Just Individual Incidents

Some losses originate in routine processes rather than deliberate criminal activity.

Incorrect goods-receiving records, inconsistent stock transfers or unclear responsibilities can generate discrepancies that appear similar to theft.

Security teams should therefore work with operations, inventory management and finance colleagues.

For example, repeated discrepancies following deliveries could prompt a review of receiving procedures and stock reconciliation.

Problems concentrated around returns might indicate weaknesses in product inspection or inventory updates.

This type of cross-functional investigation can reveal opportunities that security technology alone would miss.

The objective should be to eliminate avoidable loss, regardless of whether its cause is criminal, accidental or procedural.

Make Investigations Consistent and Fair

Where suspected internal theft or misconduct is involved, organisations need clear investigation procedures.

Incident information should be handled carefully, with appropriate safeguards for employees and other individuals.

A pattern of stock discrepancies during a particular shift does not, by itself, demonstrate that an employee has acted dishonestly.

Security managers should work with HR and relevant operational leaders to ensure investigations are evidence-led and proportionate.

Access to sensitive information should be restricted, and decisions should not be based solely on automated alerts or unexplained statistical correlations.

The aim is to establish facts, identify risks and take appropriate action without creating a culture of suspicion.

Trust and cooperation are important parts of effective loss prevention.

Put Staff Safety Ahead of Asset Recovery

Loss prevention must account for the risks employees face when responding to suspected theft or aggressive behaviour.

The BRC’s 2026 Crime Report recorded approximately 1,600 incidents of violence and abuse against retail workers per day during its latest reporting period.

Although that represented an improvement on the previous year, the figure remains substantially above pre-pandemic levels.

The Health and Safety Executive requires employers to assess and manage risks associated with workplace violence.

Incident analysis can help identify locations, times or circumstances where employees face particular threats.

However, organisations must ensure that loss prevention procedures do not encourage staff to confront potentially dangerous individuals.

The priority should always be protecting people.

Preventing financial loss is important. Preventing harm to employees is essential.

Use Data to Improve Security Across Multiple Sites

For organisations operating several premises, consolidated reporting can help identify patterns that may not be visible locally.

For example, repeated losses involving similar products across multiple retail locations could indicate a wider vulnerability.

Likewise, incidents affecting several warehouses might reveal problems with common procedures or access arrangements.

However, comparing sites requires care.

Locations may differ considerably in size, footfall, stock value, operating hours and the types of risks they face.

A large site may record more incidents simply because it handles a greater volume of activity.

Security managers should use appropriate benchmarks and examine the circumstances behind the figures.

The objective is to identify shared lessons rather than create simplistic rankings.

Protect Surveillance Data and Evidence

Bringing together incident reports, video footage and access information can make investigations more effective.

But it also increases the importance of data protection and governance.

The ICO’s surveillance guidance requires organisations to establish appropriate lawful purposes, restrict access and avoid retaining information longer than necessary.

There is no universal retention period that applies to every commercial CCTV system.

Organisations should establish and document appropriate periods based on their purposes and legal responsibilities.

Relevant footage may need to be preserved for a specific investigation, while unrelated recordings should follow normal deletion procedures.

Security teams should also maintain suitable records of evidence access and disclosure.

The ICO’s guidance is currently under review following changes introduced by the Data (Use and Access) Act, so organisations should continue checking the latest requirements.

Measure Whether Prevention Is Improving

Security teams can collect extensive information about incidents without demonstrating whether their interventions are effective.

Useful measures may include the value of unexplained losses, incident frequency, repeat losses, investigation times and the effectiveness of corrective actions.

However, changes in reported incidents must be interpreted carefully.

Improved reporting may initially cause recorded incident numbers to rise.

That does not necessarily mean the underlying security situation has deteriorated.

Likewise, a reduction in recorded events may reflect lower reporting rather than fewer losses.

Organisations should consider several measures together.

The objective is to understand whether risks and financial impacts are genuinely declining.

Turn Findings into Corrective Action

Loss prevention analytics should lead to practical changes.

If repeated incidents are associated with a poorly supervised area, an organisation might improve visibility, adjust stock positioning or review access arrangements.

Where losses appear connected with inventory processes, the response may involve additional checks or changes to recording procedures.

Each action should have an owner and an agreed review date.

Security managers should establish how the effect will be measured.

For example, have discrepancies reduced following a change to goods-receiving procedures? Have incidents become less frequent after improving lighting and visibility?

A solution should not be considered successful simply because it has been installed.

Success depends on whether the underlying problem improves.

Build a Regular Loss Prevention Review

Loss prevention is most effective when analysis becomes part of normal operational management.

Site teams may need to review significant incidents immediately, while periodic meetings can examine patterns, emerging risks and the effectiveness of previous actions.

These reviews should involve the relevant departments.

Security teams can provide incident information, but operations may understand the processes behind repeated discrepancies.

HR may need to support employee-related matters, while finance can help quantify losses and evaluate expenditure.

The review process should produce a manageable set of priorities.

The objective is continuous improvement rather than simply presenting increasingly detailed reports.

Questions to Ask Loss Prevention Analytics Providers

When comparing systems and services, security managers should consider:

  1. Can the solution bring together incidents, inventory discrepancies and relevant security information?
  2. How are different types of loss categorised?
  3. Can recurring problems be identified by location, product or time period?
  4. What CCTV search and evidence management capabilities are available?
  5. Can video analytics help identify events requiring investigation?
  6. How are false alerts and uncertain findings handled?
  7. Can access control records be included in investigations?
  8. Does the solution support consistent reporting across multiple sites?
  9. What controls protect personal information and sensitive evidence?
  10. Can managers track investigations and outstanding actions?
  11. How does the platform support employee safety reporting?
  12. Can reporting distinguish confirmed incidents from suspected losses?
  13. How are changes in loss levels and detection activity interpreted?
  14. What integration and operational support are required?
  15. How can the organisation demonstrate that preventive actions are working?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is loss prevention analytics?

Loss prevention analytics involves examining information such as inventory discrepancies, security incidents, CCTV events and operational records to identify patterns and reduce future losses.

How can businesses identify the causes of shrinkage?

Businesses can review inventory records, stock movements, damaged goods, incident reports and relevant security information to determine whether discrepancies arise from theft, errors or other operational causes.

Can video analytics prevent theft?

Video analytics can help identify selected events and support faster investigations, but its effectiveness depends on configuration, verification, response procedures and the wider security environment.

Why is incident reporting important?

Consistent incident reporting makes it easier to identify recurring problems, compare locations, support investigations and evaluate preventive measures.

How can businesses reduce repeat losses?

Organisations can analyse recurring patterns, investigate underlying causes, introduce appropriate controls and measure whether those changes reduce incidents or financial losses.

What data protection considerations apply?

Organisations must establish lawful purposes, limit access to personal information, maintain appropriate security and retain surveillance evidence only for as long as necessary.

Turn Every Incident into an Opportunity to Prevent the Next

Loss prevention technology can help businesses detect incidents, document what happened and investigate potential losses.

But the greatest value comes when organisations use that information to identify vulnerabilities and prevent problems from recurring.

A practical improvement framework is: record → investigate → identify patterns → act → measure

Record incidents and discrepancies consistently.

Investigate using relevant and reliable evidence.

Identify recurring risks and underlying causes.

Take practical steps to address them.

Then measure whether those changes reduce future losses.

The strongest loss prevention strategy isn’t necessarily the one that detects the most incidents or produces the most detailed reports.

It’s the one that learns from what happened yesterday to prevent more losses tomorrow.

The Total Security Summit brings together senior security, loss prevention and facilities decision-makers with relevant solution providers through pre-arranged one-to-one meetings, offering an opportunity to explore loss prevention analytics, surveillance, access control, incident management and wider physical security solutions.

Related Reading

This is the second article in our November Loss Prevention and Management series.

Our first article, Loss Management Solutions: What Security Teams Should Compare Before Buying, examined how businesses should evaluate CCTV, electronic article surveillance, access control, incident reporting and other technologies according to their security risks.

This follow-up focuses on the next stage: using operational and security information to identify the causes of losses, improve investigations and prevent repeated incidents.

Sources

Image credit: https://unsplash.com/photos/gold-padlock-on-white-surface-sLFP7UtFiHw

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